TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 30, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 30.05.2018

The AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung below a key horizontal support level, suggesting that price may attempt to start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this analysis – they are bearish and are widening. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7525, around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7480 and 0.7450.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC. An Australian private capital expenditure figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 30.05.2018

Price has been bearish. The EURGBP has moved below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8715, 0.8725, 0.8740 and 0.8745, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low and psychological level at 0.8700.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 30.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and downtrend. The moving averages averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1.1645 and around the trend resistance area. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1525.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 30.05.2018

Price has been bearish and is forming a lower swing low. The GBPUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.3290, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1.3230.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 30.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed around the horizontal support at 0.6885. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The NZDUSD is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6885 and 0.6960. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6970, 0.6980 and 0.6995. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6870 and 0.6855.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC. A New Zealand business confidence figure will be released at 0100 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 30.05.2018

The USDCAD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. If price starts retracing, buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2975, 1.2920 and 1.2905. The USDCAD could continue to find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.3040.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The BOC will release a rate statement and the overnight interest rate at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 30.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing at the identified horizontal levels at 0.9880 and 0.9975. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9880 and 0.9975. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves closes out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCHF may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0040.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC. The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will give a speech at 1445 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 30.05.2018

Price closed below the horizontal support at 108.90 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 109.05 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the new swing low at 108.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US preliminary GDP figure at 1230 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 30.05.2018

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1282.75, 1288.65, 1294.50, 1304.10 and 1307.50 and around the diagonal resistance area.