TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 25, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 25.05.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7415, 0.7450, 0.7490, 0.7525 and 0.7600 and around the diagonal support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair speech scheduled for 1320 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 25.05.2018

The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been providing no clear trend direction and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8715, 0.8725, 0.8740, 0.8790, 0.8795, 0.8825 and 0.8840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK GDP estimate will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a speech by the Governor of the BOE at 1320 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 25.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the moving averages and has since been bearish. Price continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the new swing high at 1.1740 and around the trend resistance area. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1675.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair speech scheduled for 1320 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 25.05.2018

The GBPUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and the trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the new swing high at 1.3410. A bearish move may find support around the lows at 1.3310.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK GDP estimate will be released at 0830 UTC today. A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC. This is followed by a speech by the Governor of the BOE and the Fed Chair at 1320 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 25.05.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6855, 0.6870, 0.6885, 0.6970, 0.6980 and 0.6995.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair speech scheduled for 1320 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 25.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.2745-1.2920. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2980.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair speech scheduled for 1320 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 25.05.2018

The USDCHF has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside direction could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the recent swing high at 0.9975. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support area at 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair speech scheduled for 1320 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 25.05.2018 #

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 108.80, 109.00, 110.35 and 11.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US core durable goods orders figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair speech scheduled for 1320 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 25.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that GOLD could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous channel resistance at 1297.45, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. A bullish move could reverse around the horizontal levels at 1305.95 and 1325.60.