TriumphFX Inter-day Chart Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 22, 2018

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

The AUDUSD has been choppy but has also been bearish. Price is below some key support levels and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all suggesting that the AUDUSD may swing lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance), around the diagonal resistance area, around the horizontal levels at 0.7650 and 0.7790 and around the moving averages. An attempt to swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7445 and 0.7340.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

EURGBP – Daily Chart

Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the EURGBP could move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.8960. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.8635 and the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

NZDUSD – Daily Chart

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6795, 0.7050, 0.7175, 0.7400 and 0.7525 and around the identified diagonal resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

USDCAD – Daily Chart

Just like other currency pairs, the USDCAD is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the recent swing high at 1.3100 and the recent swing low at 1.2550. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2250 and 1.2100.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, GOLD closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area, signalling that GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous channel support area at 1309.65 and around the moving averages. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1242.20 and 1211.70.

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