TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 18, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 18.05.2018

The AUDUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7415, 0.7450, 0.7545 and 0.7565.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 18.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price action has formed a swing lower and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP could attempt to swing lower and start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8795 and 0.8825. Price could find support around the recent swing low and horizontal support at 0.8715.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 18.05.2018

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price action has formed a swing lower and the moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2000. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1790 and 1.1765.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 18.05.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.3460-1.3605. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3660 and 1.3725. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 18.05.2018

The NZDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6855 and 0.6930 and also between the identified diagonal support and resistance areas. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidations and if the NZDUSD moves out of either consolidation (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 18.05.2018

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2730, 1.2750, 1.2835, 1.2815, 1.2920 and  1.2980.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 18.05.2018

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9915, 0.9955, 0.9985, 1.0040 and 1.0055.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 18.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. The USDJPY is moving within a new bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that the buying momentum could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.40, 110.05 and 110.00. A swing higher could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 18.05.2018

GOLD continues to be bearish. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1303.20 and 1305.95 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Price may continue to find support around the horizontal support at 1287.45.