TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 16, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7415, 0.7450, 0.7565 and 0.7585.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other currency pairs, the EURGBP is indecisive and lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8680, 0.8730, 0.8795, 0.8825 and 0.8840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and range within a horizontal channel at 1.1815 and 1.2000. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both channels and if the EURUSD moves out of either channel (break-out trades).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the horizontal channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.3460-1.3605. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3660 and 1.3725.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.6910, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the recent lows at 0.6855.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. New Zealand will release an annual budget at 0200 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD continues to look choppy and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2730, 1.2755, 1.2815, 1.2920 and 1.2980.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to move sideways and be indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9870, 0.9915, 0.9955, 1.0040 and 1.0055. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC. The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank will speak at 1600 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDJPY is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Price action has also formed a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous consolidation resistance at 110.00, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US building permits figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bearish. Price has moved below a number of key horizontal support levels and the moving averages are bearish, all suggesting that GOLD may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1303.20 and 1305.95 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

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