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TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 15, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 15.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7565. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7415, 0.7565 and 0.7585.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. An Australian wage price index figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 15.05.2018

Price has been reversing off the horizontal levels at 0.8795 and 0.8825 (as  suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.8730, 0.8765, 0.8795, 0.8825 and 0.8840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 15.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.2000. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1825 and 1.2000. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 15.05.2018

The GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.3465-1.3600. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3660 and 1.3725. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK average earnings index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 15.05.2018

Price continues to downtrend. The NZDUSD has broken to the downside of the range and the moving averages are bearish again, all suggesting that the selling momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing low at 0.6910, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6980 and 0.6995.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 15.05.2018

Price has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2730, 1.2755, 1.2815, 1.2900 and 1.2980. If the USDCAD moves below the recent low at 1.2730, price may start down-trending.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 15.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the bearish channel support area. Price has since swung above the channel and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDCHF is ranging between horizontal levels at 0.9955 and 1.0055. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 15.05.2018

The USDJPY is being rejected at the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range (108.80-110.00) and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 15.05.2018

Price has been bearish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1303.15, 1305.95, 1317.95, 1325.55 and 1332.05.


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