TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 14, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7415, 0.7565 and 0.7585.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other currency pairs, the EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8680, 0.8730, 0.8765, 0.8795, 0.8825 and 0.8840 and around the moving averages.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is moving sideways – the EURUSD is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Price is ranging around the recent swing low at 1.1825 and the horizontal resistance area around 1.2010. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. The GBPUSD is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.3465-1.3595. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3660 and 1.3725. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has reversed around the diagonal resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The NZDUSD is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6910 and 0.6995. Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7050 and 0.7095.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD moved lower and then found resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price has formed a swing lower and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the USDCAD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2815 and 1.2900 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2730.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has moved below the horizontal channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and are widening and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the USDCHF may move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support at 1.000, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.0055. A bearish move lower may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9980, 0.9955, 0.9915 and 0.9870.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal levels at 108.80 and 110.00. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has now also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and also the symmetrical triangle pattern and if the USDJPY moves out of either pattern (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bullish. Price has formed a swing higher and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that GOLD may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1318.10. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1325.50 and 1332.00.

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