TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 08, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7480, 0.7495, 0.7555, 0.7585 and 0.7620. If price moves below the horizontal support and recent lows at 0.7480, the AUDUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. An Australian budget release will be at 0930 UTC. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8770 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8840. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the range support area and then formed a slight move lower. The EURUSD has been down-trending within a bearish channel. Price is struggling to reach the channel support area, signalling that selling momentum is weakening – the EURUSD may attempt a bullish move. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2000, 1.2015, 1.2065 and 1.2135.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways and is currently attempting a move above the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3500 and 1.3660. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the GBPUSD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3725 and 1.3905.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6985 and 0.7050. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the NZDUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the NZDUSD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7095.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has closed above the horizontal channel resistance area, suggesting that price could now attempt a bullish move higher. The moving averages confirm this analysis – they are bullish and are widening. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous channel resistance area at 1.2900, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the potential bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be bullish and uptrend. The USDCHF is looking over-extended though, signalling that price may be due a bearish retrace move. A bearish move could find support around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9955, 0.9915 and 0.9870. If the USDCHF does become bullish, price may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0055.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 109.45. The USDJPY continues to look indecisive. Price action has formed a large head and shoulder bearish reversal pattern though and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that price could attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 109.45 and if the USDJPY moves below the horizontal support at 108.80. An attempt to swing low could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 108.80 and 108.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 0715 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 1800 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been reversing off the range resistance area and the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to range between the horizontal levels at 1303.15 and 1318.10. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD closes out of the range (break-out trade). The bullish channel is holding and the moving averages are bullish, suggesting that price may break to the upside of the range. A bullish move higher could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1325.25 and 1332.05.

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