TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 04, 2018


NZDUSD - 04.05.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 04.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the downside momentum seems to be over – the AUDUSD has been bullish. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7480, 0.7540, 0.7585 and 0.7620.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 04.05.2018

The EURGBP has been bullish and has broken to the upside of the range (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above the recent range and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that the EURGBP could move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8825, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. If price suddenly becomes bearish, the EURGBP could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.8770 and 0.8685.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may cause some volatility on all pairs, not just USD pairs.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 04.05.2018

Price has been down-trending but is currently moving sideways. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2015, 1.2065 and 1.2140. An attempt to move lower may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1940.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 04.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung lower. The GBPUSD continues to down-trend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that the downtrend could becoming to an end – price could become bullish. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.3660, 1.3725, 1.3905 and 1.3995 and around the bearish channel resistance area. The GBPUSD could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3540 and 1.3660.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 04.05.2018

The NZDUSD is moving sideways and is looking indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6985, 0.7050 and 0.7095. If price closes below the horizontal support at 0.6985, the NZDUSD may start down-trending again.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 04.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.2815-1.2900. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 04.05.2018

Price has finally moved below the bullish channel support area. The USDCHF is now looking indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that price may move higher. The USDCHF is looking over-extended though, signalling that price may be due a bearish move. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 04.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the horizontal support at 108.95. The USDJPY is looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 107.70, 108.60, 108.95, 109.45 and 110.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 04.05.2018

GOLD reversed around the diagonal resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways and are tight. GOLD is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1303.15 and 1318.25. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the diagonal resistance area. A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1325.25, 1332.05, 1334.90 and 1338.85.


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