TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 03, 2018


EURGBP - 03.05.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 03.05.2018

Price has been down-trending. The AUDUSD is currently in a retrace/correction phase. The moving averages are starting to move sideways, suggesting that the current downside momentum could be over. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.7540, 0.7585 and 0.7620. The AUDUSD may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7480 and 0.7545.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. The RBA will release a monetary policy statement at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 03.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance and recent high at 0.8825 and is now ranging. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8770 and 0.8825. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the EURGBP may break to the upside.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 03.05.2018

The EURUSD was rejected at the shorter-term moving average and has since moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2065 and 1.2135. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1940.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 03.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bearish and has swung lower. Price is moving within a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the current downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.3660 and 1.3730 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent low at 1.3565 and the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 03.05.2018

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has formed a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD has been down-trending. The moving averages are starting to move sideways, signalling that price could struggle to swing lower – price could become bullish. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.7045 and 0.7095.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 03.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal channel support area. The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.2815-1.2900. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 03.05.2018

The USDCHF continues to move within the bullish channel and swing higher. Price is struggling to reach the channel resistance area, suggesting that buying momentum is weakening – the USDCHF could attempt a bearish move lower. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9915 and 0.9870.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. The Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will speak at 1600 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 03.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY found support around the shorter-term moving average. Price has since moved lower though and is currently in a retrace/correction phase. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt a bullish move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the horizontal levels at 109.45 and 108.95 and around the diagonal support area. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 110.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 03.05.2018

Price reversed around the recent lows at 1303.15 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the horizontal levels at 1310.85, 1316.20 and 1325.25, around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and if GOLD closes below the recent low at 1303.15. Price could continue to find support around the recent low at 1303.15.


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