TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 02, 2018


USDCHF - 02.05.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 02.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7545 and 0.7585.  An attempt to swing lower may find support around the horizontal support and recent low at 0.7480.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC. An Australian trade balance figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 02.05.2018

The EURGBP continued to find support around the previous resistance at 0.8770 and the 38.2% Fib level and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and if the EURGBP closes above the horizontal resistance and recent highs at 0.8825. Price could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8770 and 0.8825.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK construction PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 02.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and is forming a swing lower. The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2065 and 1.2135. The EURUSD may continue to find support around 1.1990.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 02.05.2018

Price has been bearish and continues to downtrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is forming a new swing low and could soon start retracing. Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1.3730 and around the trend resistance area. The GBPUSD could find support around the newly formed horizontal support at 1.3595.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK construction PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 02.05.2018

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has been bearish and continues to downtrend (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Price is looking over-extended though – the NZDUSD may be due a bullish move. Short-term selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7045 and 0.7095. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.6990.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 02.05.2018

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2815-1.2900. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 02.05.2018

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The USDCHF continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The most recent bullish swing did not reach the channel resistance area, suggesting that buying momentum is weakening – price may attempt a bearish move lower. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9870, 0.9820 and 0.9770.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 02.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. If price pulls-back, opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the support and resistance areas of the previous range.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1430 UTC and FOMC at 1800 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 02.05.2018

GOLD has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1310.85, 1316.20 and 1325.25, around the moving averages and around the diagonal resistance area. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1303.15.


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