TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 01, 2018


GBPUSD - 01.05.2018

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 01.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the range support area and has since moved lower. The break-out move was not significant though, the AUDUSD continues to look a little indecisive. Price is moving within a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the AUDUSD could move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous swing low at 0.7545, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7585. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0920 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 01.05.2018

Price has been finding support around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8770 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace/correction phase. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP may attempt to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous resistance at 0.8770, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8825.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 01.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bearish and is attempting to swing lower. Price continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the recent swing high at 1.2135.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 01.05.2018

The GBPUSD has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3905. An attempt to move lower could find support around the recent lows at 1.3725.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. There are hints that the Bank of England (BOE) will hike the interest rate again in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A UK manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 01.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The NZDUSD is down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous channel support area at 0.7045 and around the moving averages. The moving averages are tightening though, signalling that the NZDUSD may be due a bullish retrace move.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – there is some economic uncertainty caused by New Zealand’s GDP and CPI figures. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. New Zealand employment change and unemployment rate figures will be announced at 2245 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 01.05.2018

Price has reversed at the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1.2815-1.2890. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. US manufacturing PMI is at 1400 UTC. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1830 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 01.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding resistance around the recent swing high at 0.9915. Price is looking over-extended – the USDCHF may be due a bearish retrace move. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.9870, 0.9820 and 0.9770 and around the longer-term moving average. Price may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9870 and 0.9915.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 01.05.2018

The USDJPY has been finding resistance around the horizontal level at 109.45 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal levels at 108.95 and 109.45. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 108.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 01.05.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price broke to the downside of the range and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and GOLD is moving within a bearish channel, all suggesting that price may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1316.20 and 1325.25, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. GOLD may find support around the channel support area.


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