Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 02-06.04.2018

EUR/USD

The Euro is still trading slightly below the volume resistance level of 1.2342 – 1.2357. Thus, our previous scenario of opening short positions with this instrument is still relevant.

Sales can be opened after the test of the resistance level and a sharp rebound of the price down. It is desirable that the movement is supported by the increased volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed a little above the mark of 1.2357. The potential of the deal is 90-100 points.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its gradual decline. Also it is worth noting that the price showed a sharp decline on the large volume and broke down the previous support level last week, which is an excellent bearish signal. Thus, we should give preference to sales with this currency pair at the moment.

Short positions can be opened after a small correction of the price upwards to get a more advantageous entry point. A stop loss must be located at the level of 1.4095. The potential of the deal is about 100-110 points.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY corrected downwards and is testing the support level of 106.11 – 106.28 now. Considering that the large volume is concentrated in this mark and the price has not shown any significant reaction so far, we can single out 2 possible trading scenarios from this level:
1. A sure breakdown of the support on the large volume will allow us to open short positions.
2. A sharp price rebound from this mark on the large volume will be an excellent bullish signal, which will allow us to consider the scenario of opening long positions.

USD/CAD

The situation with the Canadian dollar has not changed, since the pair is still trading in the local consolidation between two volume levels: the support of 1.2818 and the resistance of 1.3100.
Therefore, the best solution with this instrument is just to wait for a confident exit of the price from the range on the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar did not show any significant price movement on Friday and is still trading in a small consolidation. Nevertheless, given the local downtrend and the recent price exit from the consolidation down, we should give preference to sales.
Short positions can be opened after the resumption of the price drop on the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the beginning of a sharp decline. The potential of the deal is about 80-90 points.

XAU/USD

Gold tested the volume support level of 1323.10 – 1324.40, could not break it and is trading inside this mark at the moment. Thus, we can consider a scenario of the breakdown of the support, which will be an excellent bearish signal and will allow us to open short positions with this instrument.

The breakdown level must be sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is 130-140 points.

The sentiment: this indicator confirms our scenario with the Australian dollar. With the Euro and Pound, the situation is 50 to 50, so we need to wait for more accurate signals to be able to enter the market. Based on the sentiment, we should give preference to long positions with gold, however, if the price breaks down the support, this will be a very strong signal for sales. With all other instruments, we are waiting for new strong signals to open new deals.