TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 05, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 05.02.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling the downside momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7960, 0.7995 and 0.8045, around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bearish move may find support around the recent low at 0.7900.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. Australian retail sales and trade balance figures will be released at 0030 UTC. This is followed by a rate announcement and rate statement at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 05.02.2018

 

Price has been bullish and is forming a swing higher. The EURGBP is above the recent bearish channel and the moving averages are becoming bullish, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 0.8815, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area (as support). A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8830 and 0.8840.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1600 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 05.02.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around the trend support area and the longer-term moving average. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2390, 1.2345, 1.2305 and 1.2285. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2515.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.  The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by a speech from the European Central Bank (ECB) at 1600 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 05.02.2018

The GBPUSD has moved-off the horizontal resistance at 1.4270 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3990-1.4270. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the GBPUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 05.02.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal support at 0.7280. The NZDUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7280, 0.7340, 0.7400, 0.7415 and 0.7430.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 05.02.2018

Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent bearish channel. The USDCAD is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2390 and 1.2375, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2480 and 1.2505.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.25%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 05.02.2018

The USDCHF has become indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9255-0.9335. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the upside, price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9390, 0.9540 and 0.9640.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 05.02.2018

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bullish and has reversed around the previous horizontal support at 110.50. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that the USDJPY could continue to be bullish and uptrend. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 109.70 and 109.15 and around the trend support area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 05.02.2018

GOLD has been bearish and has become choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1325.45, 1328.70, 1334.85, 1345.90, 1349.90, 1355.60 and 1364.60.