TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 31, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding support around the bullish channel support area and is struggling to swing higher. Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel but the moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that the current uptrend could becoming to an end. Price action confirms this – the AUDUSD is struggling to swing higher. Price could become bearish. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8105 and 0.8135 and if price closes below the channel support area. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8005, 0.7960 and 0.7935.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been bearish. Price has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8695, 0.8730, 0.8830, 0.8840, 0.8860 and 0.8910.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A European estimated CPI figure will be released at 1000 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price kept reversing around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation pattern. As also suggested, the NZDUSD closed above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2165, 1.2215, 1.2285, 1.2305, 1.2345 and 1.2505. Trading opportunities may also exist around the support and resistance of the previous consolidation pattern.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A European estimated CPI figure will be released at 1000 UTC today. US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been bullish. The GBPUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.4310, 1.4260, 1.3990 and 1.3935.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found resistance around the diagonal resistance area and the longer-term moving average. Price has since been bullish though and has moved higher. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the lack of trend momentum. Trading opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7430, 0.7280, 0.7270, 0.7235 and 0.7220.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Just like most other USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Price continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1.2285-1.2390. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD closes out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.25%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a Canadian GDP figure at 1330 UTC. US crude oil inventories is at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 0.9315-0.9435. Price action has also formed a descending triangle pattern (horizontal support at 0.9315 and the diagonal resistance). Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation patterns and if the USDCHF moves out of either pattern (break-out trades). The moving averages are still bearish, signalling that price could break to the downside. If the USDCHF becomes bullish, price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9540, 0.9635 and 0.9665.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to range between the recent low at 108.30 and the recent high at 109.70. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.30, 110.50, 111.15 and 111.45. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price could break to the downside.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
US non-farm employment change is at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce rates and a statement at 1900 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1325.45, 1333.85, 1345.90, 1355.60 and 1364.60.
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