TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 30, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The AUDUSD is currently in a correction phase and is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the recent swing low at 0.8005. A move to the upside may reverse around the moving averages, the recent swing high at 0.8135 and the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. An Australian CIP figure will be released at 0030 UTC. This is followed by a speech by US President Trump at 0200 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the bullish momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8790 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8840, 0.8860 and 0.8910.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
The Governor of the Bank of England(BoE) will speak at 1530 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has moved below the recent range support area but price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a tightening triangular consolidation pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the pattern and if the EURUSD moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2300, 1.2285, 1.2215 and 1.2165. If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD may stall or reverse around the recent high at 1.2505.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 0200 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD moved below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price action has formed a lower swing high and a bearish channel, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish and are widening. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 1.4110, around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.4260 and 1.4310. An attempt to move lower could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.3935.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by a speech from the Governor of the Bank of England(BoE) at 1530 UTC. US President Trump will speak at 0200 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be indecisive. The NZDUZD is still ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.7290 and 0.7385 and is currently attempting a move below the range support area. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the NZDUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A move to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.7270, 0.7235 and 0.7220.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 0200 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average. The USDCAD has struggled to swing lower though and continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1.2285-1.2390. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and around the diagonal support and resistance areas. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.25%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 0200 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.9315 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9435. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the upside, price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9540, 0.9635 and 0.9665. The moving averages are still bearish, signalling that the USDCHF could break to the downside.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 0200 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to range between the recent low at 108.30 and the recent high at 109.70. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 110.30, 110.50, 111.15 and 111.45. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price could break to the downside.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. US President Trump will speak at 0200 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area, around the horizontal level at 1343.70 and around the bearish moving averages. A move to the downside may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 1325.45.
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