TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 19, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has swung off the range support area and is not finding resistance around the range resistance area. Price continues to range between the horizontal support at 0.7935 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8020. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the AUDUSD could reverse around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7895. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could move higher.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been bearish again and has formed a swing low below the consolidation area, signalling that price may attempt to start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and are widening. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8835, 0.8845 and 0.8860. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low and psychological level at 0.8800.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish but has also become indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2165 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2300. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2080 and 1.2005.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and is now stalling around the recent high at 1.3920. The GBPUSD has been clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A UK retail sales figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD is struggling to swing higher. Price is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – the moving averages are tight and are crossing frequently. The NZDUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7235 and the recent high at 0.7330. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a bullish channel. Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area. If the NZDUSD breaks to the downside, price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7220, 0.7215, 0.7185 and 0.7140.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed around the tighter range resistance area and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 1.2370-1.2580 and also a tighter horizontal channel at 1.2370-1.2465. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the both ranges and if the USDCAD moves out of either range (break-out trades).
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.25%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has closed below the horizontal channel support area and is now attempting a bearish move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support at 0.9580, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the channel resistance area. A move to the downside may stall or reverse around the channel support area.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bearish and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 110.30, 111.45, 111.65, 111.80 and 112.15.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has moved-off the horizontal level at 1324.50. GOLD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal level at 1324.50 and the horizontal resistance at 1343.70. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A move to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 1309.50 and 1306.55.
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