TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 17, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and swung higher. Price has been clearly up-trending. The recent bullish swing was not as strong as previous swings and the AUDUSD is now below the shorter-term moving average, all signalling that price could be due a bearish move. A move to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.7935, 0.7895 and 0.7805, around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8910 again (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8810, 0.8845, 0.8860, 0.8900, 0.8910 and 0.8920.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the 23.6% Fib level and then swung higher. The EURUSD is now retracing the recent bullish swing and has also started ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2205 and the recent highs at 1.2300. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price has been up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. A break to the downside could reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2080, 1.2005 and 1.1915.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and then swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Just like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD is now ranging (1.3745-1.3825). Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that a bearish move may reverse bullish. Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3605 and 1.3580.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bearish and has filed to swing any higher. Price has been up-trending but the moving averages are moving sideways and are tightening, signalling that the uptrend could becoming to an end. A move to the upside may reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7310. A bearish move could find support around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7220, 0.7210, 0.7185 and 0.7140.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and range between the recent low at 1.2370 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2580 . The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade).
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.00%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce rates at 1500 UTC today. This is followed by a BoC press conference at 1615 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the 23.6% Fib level. The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening and price action has formed a potential bearish channel, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9705 and 0.9740. A move to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9580 and the channel support area.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price found resistance around the shorter-term moving average and has since formed a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is now ranging between the horizontal support area at 110.30 and the horizontal resistance area at 110.95. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the USDJPY could break to the downside. If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.65, 111.80 and 112.10.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found support and attempted to swing higher. As identified, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1343.70. Price is now ranging between the recent swing low at 1332.35 and the horizontal resistance at 1343.70. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways and are starting to tighten. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, GOLD may find support around the horizontal levels at 1324.50, 1309.50 and 1306.55.
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