TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 16, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continued to be bullish and move higher. The AUDUSD has now started to retrace some of the recent bullish move and is forming a new swing high. Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous swing high at 0.7895 and around the trend support area. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the new swing high at 0.7975.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price was rejected and reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8910 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8810, 0.8845, 0.8860, 0.8910 and 0.8920.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has started to retrace some of the recent bullish move. Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace/correction phase. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance and swing high at 1.2080.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The GBPUSD has started to retrace some of the recent bullish swing (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3810.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The NZDUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish but are starting to tighten, signalling that buying momentum may be weakening. If the NZDUSD becomes bearish, price may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.7220, 0.7210, 0.7185 and 0.7140. A move to the upside could reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7310.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 1.2370 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2580. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance).
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.00%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Recent price action has been bearish. The USDCHF is now retracing some of the recent bearish move. Price is below some key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the USDCHF may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous support levels at 0.9705 and 0.9740.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
The chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will speak at 1700 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has found resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price has been down-trending and is currently retracing some of the most recent bearish swing. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 111.05, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 111.65 and 111.80.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has started to retrace (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1324.50.
Hits: 4