TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 10, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 10.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and then attempted a bearish move. As also suggested, the AUDUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.7805. Price action has now formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.7805-0.7830. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and price action has formed a lower swing low, signalling that price could break to the downside. If price breaks to the upside, shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the recent highs at 0.7875.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1530 UTC today. This is followed by Australian retail sales at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 10.01.2018

Price has become indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8810 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8835. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). The EURGBP is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, all suggesting that price may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous consolidation support area at 0.8845. A move to the downside may find support around the horizontal support and psychological level at 0.8800

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.

A UK manufacturing production figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 10.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. Price is now retracing. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt another bearish move. Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.2005. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1825 and 1.1880.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.  The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1530 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 10.01.2018

The GBPUSD reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has now formed a new horizontal channel at 1.3510-1.3580. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the GBPUSD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3490, 1.3455, 1.3420, 1.3390 and 1.3345. If price breaks to the upside, the GBPUSD may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3605.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A UK manufacturing production figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 10.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area and is currently retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The NZDUSD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and also a bullish channel. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7125. A move to the upside could find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7185 and around the channel resistance area. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that price could become indecisive.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1530 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 10.01.2018

Price has continued to be bullish and retrace the recent bearish move. The USDCAD has moved above the recent bullish channel and the moving averages are becoming more bullish, all suggesting that the downtrend may now be over. Long opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support area, around the resistance area of the previous bearish channel and around the recent swing low at 1.2370. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2485 and 1.2575.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.00%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1530 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 10.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher. As also suggested, price is reversing around the previous horizontal support at 0.9840. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the current uptrend could continue. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance and swing high at 0.9785 and around the trend support area. A move higher could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9840, 0.9910 and 0.9915.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1530 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 10.01.2018

The USDJPY has been bearish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price has moved below some key support levels though, signalling that the USDJPY may be building bearish momentum. If price pulls-back, opportunities to go short could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 112.10 and 112.50 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be announced at 1530 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 10.01.2018

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. GOLD is ranging between the recent swing low at 1306.55 and the recent swing high at 1324.50. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

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