TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 05, 2018
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bullish and has continued to find resistance around the previous trend support area. Price has been clearly up-trending. The AUDUSD is looking a little tired now though – buying momentum is weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish but are tightening and starting to move sideways. Price may become indecisive or start retracing. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7790 and 0.7865, around the moving averages and around the previous trend support area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8845 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8920. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8830, 0.8800 and 0.8760.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A European CPI flash estimate will be released at 1000 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the previous trend support area and is now ranging. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The EURUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1995 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2080. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.
A European CPI flash estimate will be released at 1000 UTC today. A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish but is struggling to swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has become indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3490 and the recent swing high at 1.3605. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the GBPUSD breaks to the downside, price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3455, 1.3425, 1.3345 and 1.3305.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been very bullish. Price has been up-trending and the NZDUSD is above the recent consolidation, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and are starting to widen. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 0.7125 and 0.7075 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD reversed bearish around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since moved lower. Price action has formed a bearish channel and price slowly down-trending within the channel. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2480 and 1.2575.
The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.00%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US and Canadian unemployment rate figures and a Canadian trade balance figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish but has struggled to swing lower. The moving averages have crossed bullish and price action has formed a bullish channel, signalling that the recent downtrend may be over. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the recent lows at 0.9710. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9780 and the channel resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 113.55, 113.35, 112.90 and 112.10.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.
A US non-farm payrolls figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. A US unemployment rate figure will be released at the same time. This is followed by US non-manufacturing PMI at 1500 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has swung higher but is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways – confirming the potential indecision. Price could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1305.55 and 1324.50. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD closes out of the range (break-out trade).
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