TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 04, 2018


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 04.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the previous trend support area. The AUDUSD has moved above the horizontal channel resistance at 0.7840 and the moving averages are bullish, all suggesting that price could attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous horizontal channel (0.7805 & 0.7840), around the diagonal support area and around the bullish moving averages. A move to the upside could continue to stall or reverse around the previous trend support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently held rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC. An Australian trade balance figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 04.01.2018

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8845 and the recent high at 0.8910. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURGBP may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8830, 0.8800 and 0.8760.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.

A UK services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 04.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing. Price has been up-trending and is currently in a correction/retrace phase. The moving averages are still bullish, signalling that the EURUSD may attempt a bullish move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the horizontal support at 1.1995 and around the longer-term moving average. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the previous trend support area and around the recent swing high at 1.2070. Price could start ranging between 1.1995 and 1.2070.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.  The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. If Catalonia independence becomes more likely, the euro could weaken.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 04.01.2018

The GBPUSD has been retracing (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has been finding support around the longer-term moving average (as also suggested). Price has been up-trending and is currently in a correction/retrace phase. The moving averages are slightly bullish, suggesting that the GBPUSD could attempt to swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal support at 1.3490. Price looks like it could start ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3490 and the recent swing high at 1.3605. A move to the downside may find support at 1.3455 and 1.3420.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A UK services PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 04.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the horizontal channel support at 0.7075. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 0.7075-0.7125. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade).  The NZDUSD is currently bullish and may attempt a break to the upside. If price breaks to the downside, the NZDUSD could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7035.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 04.01.2018

Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is struggling to swing lower though. Price is moving sideways and ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2500 and the recent swing high at 1.2575. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the USDCAD could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the range resistance at 1.2575.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.00%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 04.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been finding resistance around the 38.2% Fib level. Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages were bearish but are now tightening and becoming more bullish, signalling that the USDCHF may struggle to swing lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.9840. A bearish move may reverse around the moving averages – price could continue to be bullish and retrace.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 04.01.2018

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 112.10-112.80. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a break to the downside. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 112.90, 113.10, 113.35 and 113.60.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by unemployment claims at 1330 UTC and crude oil inventories at 1600 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 04.01.2018

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bearish and is retracing some of the recent rally. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that price could attempt a bullish swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal support at 1306.55 and the longer-term moving average. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the recent swing high at 1320.35.

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