TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 14, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 14.12.2017

Price has been very bullish and is above recent highs. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the AUDUSD could swing high and possibly uptrend. If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around the previous swing high at 0.7655, around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent monetary policy minutes and employment data strongly suggest that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 14.12.2017

The EURGBP continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price continues to range between the recent low at 0.8695 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8850. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

UK retail sales figures will be released at 0930 UTC today. The Bank of England will announce the official bank rate and a monetary policy statement at 1200 UTC. The European Central Bank will announce rates at 1245 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 14.12.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent bearish channel. The EURUSD is above some key resistance areas and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1805, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous trend resistance area (as support). A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1880 and 1.1930.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.  The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

The European Central Bank will announce rates at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC. US retail sales will be released at the same time as the press conference.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 14.12.2017

The GBPUSD is looking very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend momentum – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3220, 1.3305, 1.3515 and 1.3545.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive and Brexit negotiations seem to be progressing – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

UK retail sales figures will be released at 0930 UTC today. The Bank of England will announce the official bank rate and a monetary policy statement at 1200 UTC. US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 14.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bullish and has moved much higher. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, all signalling that the NZDUSD could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6945 and 0.6910.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD 14.12.2017

Just like most other currency pairs, the USDCAD continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2640, 1.2795, 1.2885 and 1.2905. If price closes above the resistance at 1.2905, the USDCAD could start up-trending.

The Bank of Canada recently raised rates to 1.00%. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. The Governor of the Bank of Canada will speak at 1725 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 14.12.2017

Price continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9745, 0.9895, 0.9930 and 0.9970.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 14.12.2017

The USDJPY has moved below some key support levels and has also moved below the bullish channel support area. Price is now looking indecision. The moving averages are bearish and are widening though, signalling that the USDJPY could attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 113.25 and 113.70. A move to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 112.05 and 111.80.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US, the UK or Europe intensifies or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve recently raised rates to 1.50%. If political uncertainty intensifies in the US or between the US and it’s international relations, the USD may weaken.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 14.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved above the recent bearish channel resistance area. Price action is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, all signalling that GOLD may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1251.00 and 1245.95, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).