TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 13, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 13.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has found resistance at the 50.0% Fib level. Price action has formed a swing below the recent consolidation, signalling that price may start down-trending. The moving averages have crossed bullish though, suggesting that the AUDUSD may struggle to swing lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. A move to the downside may stall or reverse around the bullish moving averages and around the recent low and psychological level at 0.7500.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 13.12.2017

The EURGBP has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between the recent low at 0.8695 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8850. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK average earnings index figure will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 13.12.2017

Price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower. The moving averages are slightly bearish and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the recent selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1805 and 1.1830. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1720 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 13.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price kept being rejected and find support at the range support area. The GBPUSD has since closed below the range support area, signalling that price could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and are widening. Opportunities to go short may exist around the range support area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A move to the downside could find support around the recent lows at 1.3220.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK average earnings index figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 13.12.2017

The NZDUSD is above the recent consolidation resistance area and is forming a swing high (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price may start up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance areas at 0.6945 and 0.6905 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 13.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD continued to reverse around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel. Price eventually broke to the upside of the channel but price has since re-entered the channel. The USDCAD continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2640, 1.2815, 1.2885 and 1.2905. If price closes above the resistance at 1.2905, the USDCAD could start up-trending.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 13.12.2017

Price continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9745, 0.9885, 0.9895, 0.9930 and 0.9970.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 13.12.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the horizontal level at 113.25 and the longer-term moving average. The USDJPY has been up-trending within a bullish channel. Price is currently indecisive though and has formed a horizontal channel at 113.25-113.70. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the previous swing high at 113.00 and the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC. The Federal Reserve will announce the fund rate, release a statement and give economic projections at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 13.12.2017

GOLD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are starting to tighten and price is struggling to reach the channel support area, all suggesting that GOLD may attempt a bullish move above the channel resistance area. A move to the upside could reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1245.95, 1251.00 and 1262.60, around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area.