Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 11-15.12.2017


EUR/USD

After the release of data on the labor market in the US, EUR/USD showed a rapid growth on increased volume. Nevertheless, volume was evenly distributed throughout the movement, so we can not point out any new level or zone. In addition, there is a local downtrend, so it is quite dangerous to open purchases.
Thus, the best option will be to wait for the appearance of large volume on the market and the formation of new volume levels, which can be used as reliable places for stop losses.
At the moment it’s better to be out of the market for this currency pair.

volume euro tfxi

GBP/USD

GBP/USD pair showed the opposite reaction and fell to support/lower limit of local consolidation 1.3360 – 1.3381. Thus, the price is still closed in this range, so the best solution is to wait for the price to come out of it and only then it is worth considering the new deals.

volume gbp tfxi
Given that the price is near the bottom of the consolidation, so it is worth considering a scenario of its breakdown, which will allow us to open short positions. The breakdown movement must be sharp and on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is 120-130 points.

sell gbp tfxi

USD/JPY

The Yen continued its growth after the publication of the payrolls. Also it is worth noting the new level of support 113.16 – 113.25, where large volume is concentrated. In addition, we must highlight the presence of a local uptrend for this instrument.

volume jpy tfxi
Thus, it is necessary to consider exceptionally long positions for USD/JPY. Purchases should be opened after a correction/test of the level of support and a resumption of price growth. A stop loss should be placed under the support level. The potential of the deal is 110-120 points.

buy jpy tfxi

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues trading near the resistance level/upper limit of the global consolidation 1.2906, from which the price fell very strongly the previous time.

volume cad tfxi
Thus, our previous scenario remains relevant: long positions can be opened after the breakout of this mark on increased/large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volume bar. The deal’s potential is more than 150 points.

buy cad tfxi

AUD/USD

For AUD/USD, it is necessary to allocate a new resistance level 0.7531, which was formed after the release of the payrolls and in which fairly large volume is concentrated. After the formation of this level, the price continued its fall, so the most logical solution would be to open short positions for this instrument.

volume aud tfxi
Sales should be opened after a smooth correction of the price up and the resumption of the fall, since very often there are corrections on Monday, especially after strong news. A stop loss should be placed a little above the resistance level. The potential of the fall is about 60-70 points.

sell aud tfxi

XAU/USD

After the release of the payrolls on Friday, gold tested the local minimum and rebounded upwards on large volume. Nevertheless, the price did not show any further growth and remained trading slightly above this minimum of 1244.30. It is also necessary to note the presence of a local downtrend. Considering all factors, it is worth considering the scenario of a breakdown of the support/local minimum, which will be an excellent bearish signal.

volume gold tfxi
The breakdown movement must be sharp and swift. Volume during the movement must be, at least, above the average, which will insure us against false movements and will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 200 points.

sell gold tfxi
The sentiment: the mood of the market fully confirms all our scenarios, except the one for the Pound, which is now located in the local consolidation. This is an excellent additional signal for us.

sentiment

The bottom line: now the situation on the market is suitable for active trading as there are a plenty of good scenario. In priority: USD/JPY, AUD/USD, XAU/USD.

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