The Euro tested the lower limit of the local consolidation 1.1829, but failed to surely break it down and is located at this level at the moment. The move was on small volume, but the absence of any rebound tells us that the price is willing to go down further. In such a case we may consider the scenario of the breakdown of the support, which give us an opportunity to open short positions.
The breakdown movement must be sharp and supported by increased volume, so it will insure us from false moves and will be a more accurate signal. A stop loss should be placed a little bit above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 80-90 points.
GBP/USD had tested the level of support 1.3391 – 1.3417, but failed to break it down and rebounded up. Now the pair is testing this level one more time, so obvious that we may consider the scenario of its breakdown which allow us to open short positions.
The movement must be abrupt and confident + supported by large volume, so it will be a stronger and more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 140 points.
A situation for this currency pair is tough as it corrected downwards yesterday, but the move was smooth and on small volume, so we can’t consider it as a reverse of the market. On the other hand, there is a strong volume zone 111.45 – 112.08 and the price is located near it. So that the best decision is to wait for the reaction of the price to this zone and then we can consider new positions for this currency pair.
The pair showed an abrupt upward correction yesterday, but we should point out that the move was on small volume, so we can’t consider it as a reversal signal. That’s why our previous scenario remains actual: after a resumption of the fall we should deliberate short positions for this currency pair. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance level 1.2732 – 1.2768. A potential of the deal is around 150 points.
After the test of the resistance 0.7649, the price fell down sharply and is located in the middle of the local consolidation once again. So that we can consider new positions only after a sure exit of the price from the range. A breakout movement must be sharp and supported by large volume, in order to avoid false moves.
Gold showed a rapid fall of the price and tested the support/lower limit of the global consolidation 1264.40 – 1266.00 yesterday. It is worth noting that the price move was on increased volume + it did not show any significant reaction after the level test, so we may consider the scenario of a breakdown of this support. This will be an excellent signal for the opening of short positions on gold.
The breakout movement must be sharp and on increased/large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed just below the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is more than 100 points.
The sentiment: our scenarios for USD/CAD and XAU/USD are confirmed (trading against the “crowd”), so that these instruments are in priority today.
The bottom line: it seems like the situation on the market starts reversing, so we should be careful while considering new positions.