TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 30, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The AUDUSD is ranging between the recent low at 0.7530 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7645. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the identified horizontal levels. The EURGBP has since been bearish though and has moved below the identified horizontal levels. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous support levels at 0.8820 and 0.8845 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
European CPI flash estimate will be announced at 1000 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD was rejected and found support around the horizontal support at 1.1835 and the long-term trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The EURUSD has become indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.1835-1.1875. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price may reverse around the trend support area and around the recent swing high at 1.1960.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
European CPI flash estimate will be announced at 1000 UTC today. A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has continued to be bullish. As also suggested, price bounced off the trend resistance area before moving higher. The GBPUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3380.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has moved below the bullish channel support area. The NZDUSD is below some key support areas and the moving averages are about to cross bearish, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6855 and 0.6880, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A move lower may find support around the recent lows at 0.6780/
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDCAD is above the recent range and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could start up-trending. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance area at 1.2835 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCHF has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area and has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9865, 0.9880 and 0.9945.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been moving higher. Price action is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the USDJPY may move higher. If price starts to retrace, opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance area at 111.70 and around the bullish moving averages. A move higher may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 112.70.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price closed below the trend support area and has since been very bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1275.85, 1287.05 and 1298.35.
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