TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 29, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent low at 0.7530 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7645. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC. An Australian private capital expenditure figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP was bullish and formed a swing higher. Price quickly reversed bearish though but has been finding support around the horizontal support at 0.8845 (as also suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8795, 0.8820, 0.8845, 0.8980 and 0.9010.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1400 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to be bearish and retrace the recent bullish swing. The EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that price could struggle to swing higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal support at 1.1835 and around the trend support area. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent high at 1.1960.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the bullish channel support area. The bearish move quickly reversed though and the GBPUSD has since been very bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the buying momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3375 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the trend resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC. The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1400 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has moved off the bullish channel resistance area and is now attempting a move off the channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the new swing low at 0.6885. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6945 and around the channel resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC. A New Zealand business confidence figure will be announced at 0000 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The USDCAD is ranging between the recent lows and horizontal support at 1.2665 and the recent highs and horizontal resistance at 1.2835. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal level at 1.2745 and around the moving averages.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to retrace and is reversing around the previous horizontal support at 0.9850. The moving averages have now crossed bullish and price action has formed a diagonal support area, all signalling that the USDCHF could struggle to swing lower. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. A move higher could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9880 and 0.9945.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has been bullish and has moved above the recent trend resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now looking a little tired. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 110.90-111.70. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.95 and 112.70. Price may reverse bullish around the previous trend resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed testimony at 1500 UTC and a US crude oil inventories figure at 1530 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has found support around the moving averages and the trend support area. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price may move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the recent horizontal support at 1287.05. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1298.35. If GOLD closes above the recent swing high, price could attempt a move higher. GOLD is still a little choppy and seems to be consolidating between the recent swing high and the trend support area. If price closes below the trend support area, GOLD may attempt a bearish move lower.
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