TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 28, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 28.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and has formed a swing higher. The bullish move quickly reversed though – the AUDUSD is now moving sideways and looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.7595 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7645. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7585 and 0.7530.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC today. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 28.11.2017

Price has been rejected around the previous bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to look choppy and indecisive but is moving in a general upward direction. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price could attempt a bullish move. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8955 and 0.9010.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 0730 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 28.11.2017

The EURUSD is clearly up-trending. Price is currently retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1855 and around the trend support area. A move to the upside may find resistance around the recent high at 1.1960.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC today. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 28.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to uptrend. As also suggested, price then reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. The GBPUSD continues to uptrend and move within a bullish channel. Recent price action has been moving sideways and the moving averages are starting to tighten, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening. Long opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3310, 1.3280 and 1.3265, around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside could become bearish and price could move below the channel support area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 0730 UTC today. There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 28.11.2017

Price has been bullish. Price action has formed a swing higher and a bullish channel, suggesting that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are steady – confirming the upside momentum. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6910 and 0.6900, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. The NZDUSD may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC today. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.  A New Zealand financial stability report will be given at 2000 UTC. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will speak at 0000 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 28.11.2017

The USDCAD continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is ranging between the recent lows and horizontal support at 1.2665 and the recent highs and horizontal resistance at 1.2835. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the horizontal level at 1.2745.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC today. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.  The Governor of the Bank of Canada will speak at 1630 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 28.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF was rejected and found support around the recent lows and is now retracing. Price has been down-trending and is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling that selling momentum is weakening – the USDCHF may struggle to swing lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9875. Long opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal support area and around the recent lows and horizontal support at 0.9785.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC today. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 28.11.2017

Price has been bearish and has formed a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The most recent swing was fairly weak and the bearish moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the USDJPY could become bullish. If price does attempt a bullish move, the USDJPY may stall or reverse around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 111.65, 112.00 and 112.70.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There will be a Fed speech at 1445 UTC today. This is followed by a US consumer confidence figure at 1500 UTC and a US treasury speech at 2045 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 28.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the consolidation resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that GOLD may move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the recent horizontal support at 1287.05. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1298.35.