TriumphFX Inter-day Forex Analysis – Daily Charts – November 24, 2017

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, the AUDUSD continued to be bearish and has found support around the diagonal/trend support area. Price action is overall bullish but price does look a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal level at 0.7740 and the diagonal support area. If the AUDUSD closes below the diagonal support area, price may attempt a bearish move lower. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7340.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

EURGBP – Daily Chart

The EURGBP is looking very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8750-0.9000. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the EURGBP breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.9260. If the EURGBP breaks to the downside, price could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8340.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, price has reversed bullish around the trend support area but is now moving sideways. The GBPUSD is moving within a horizontal channel at 1.3040-1.3310 and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are starting to tighten and move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). If the GBPUSD breaks to the downside, price may find support around the previous swing lows at 1.2785 and 1.2630. If the GBPUSD breaks to the upside, price may find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3585.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

USDCAD – Daily Chart

Price action is forming the 2nd shoulder of an inverted head and shoulder pattern. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the shorter-term moving average and around the previous shoulder support at 1.2425. There is a lot of resistance if price does become bullish. The USDCAD could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.2890, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3015.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

USDCHF – Daily Chart

The USDCHF is looking very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9440, 0.9760, 1.0025, 1.0100, 1.0145 and 1.0300.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

USDJPY – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price is indecisive and moving within a clear horizontal channel at 107.75-114.40. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 118.25.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

GOLD has been finding support around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis). Price has been up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the channel support area. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1266.00-1304.00. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD closes out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1211.65 and 1349.25.

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