TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 22, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 22.11.2017

Price has moved above the trend resistance and the moving averages. The AUDUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price may start ranging and bounce off the identified horizontal levels. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7530, 0.7590 and 0.7610.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 22.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the bearish channel resistance area but the bearish move soon became bullish. The EURGBP is now attempting to move above the bearish channel resistance area but the moving averages are still bearish, suggesting that price could attempt a move lower. Price is moving within a tight horizontal channel at 0.8845-0.8880. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the bearish channel support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.8795, 0.8820, 0.8945 and 0.9010.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

The UK autumn forecast statement will be at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 22.11.2017

The EURUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. Price has recently struggled to reach the bearish channel support area, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they were bearish but are not moving sideways. The EURUSD could move above the channel resistance area and attempt a move to the recent highs around 1.1820-1.8050. Opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal support at 1.1720 and if price closes above the channel resistance area. The bearish channel could still hold though. Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1675.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 22.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD was lacking upside momentum and has moved below the recent bullish channel support area. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady – signalling that price may start moving higher again – but the GBPUSD is looking choppy and indecisive. Price action has formed a new bullish channel. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1.3215. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3135, 1.3175, 1.3265, 1.3280 and 1.3310 and around the channel resistance area. The GBPUSD is ranging between 1.3215-1.3265.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

The UK autumn forecast statement will be at 1230 UTC today. US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 22.11.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent bearish channel resistance area. Price action has formed a double-bottom reversal pattern and a bullish channel, all signalling that the NZDUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages may also cross bullish. Long opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support), around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6790 and 0.6780. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 0.6880.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC. A New Zealand retail sales figure will be released at 2145 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 22.11.2017

The USDCAD closed above the consolidation resistance area but quickly reversed and reentered the consolidation. Price is looking choppy and a little indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a bullish channel but is also ranging between the identified horizontal levels. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel and around the horizontal levels at 1.2665, 1.2715 and 1.2835.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 22.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF is forming a horizontal channel at 0.9875-0.9945 and has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the downside, price could be rejected or reverse around the recent low at 0.9850.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 22.11.2017

Price has been bearish but is also forming a horizontal channel at 111.95-112.70. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US durable goods orders and unemployment claims will be announced at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US crude oil inventories at 1530 UTC and the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 1900 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 22.11.2017

GOLD continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1271.45, 1275.90 and 1294.05 and around the diagonal support area.

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