TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 21, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower. As also suggested, price has found support around the most recent swing low. The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.7575 and 0.7610 and around the trend resistance area. Price may continue to find support around the horizontal support and recent lows at 0.7535.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will speak at 0905 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has continued to retrace the recent bullish swing and move lower. Price is retracing within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the bearish momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A move lower could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8820 and 0.8795.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is a UK inflation report hearing at 1000 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bearish channel resistance area. The EURUSD is retracing some of the recent bullish move and is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the retrace move may continue. Price has been finding support around the 1.1725 area though, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening and that the EURUSD may attempt to swing higher. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal level at 1.1760, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Opportunities to go long could exist around the horizontal support at 1.1725 and the bearish channel support area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be bullish and uptrend within a bullish channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is struggling to reach the bullish channel resistance area, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish but are beginning to tighten slightly. Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price could reverse and become bearish around the horizontal resistance areas at 1.3280 and 1.3310 and around the channel resistance area. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing lows at 1.3175 and 1.3135.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a UK inflation report hearing at 1000 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the previous horizontal support at 0.6835. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 0.6835. A move to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the recent low at 0.6780 and the bearish channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD reversed around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has stalled around the horizontal resistance at 1.2820 (as also suggested). Price is looking a little choppy and is consolidating between the diagonal support area and the horizontal resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDCAD could move above the consolidation resistance area. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation, around the bullish moving averages and if price closes out of the consolidation.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 0.9880-0.9945. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price may reverse bullish around the previous trend resistance area (as support).
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish and has moved above the bearish channel resistance. The moving averages are bearish but are beginning to tighten, suggesting that the USDJPY could attempt another bullish move. Price action is forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern – confirming the analysis. Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 112.70 and 113.30.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2300 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been very bearish and has moved below the bullish channel support area. Price is looking choppy and indecisive again. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1294.05, 1275.90 and 1271.45, around the previous bullish channel support and resistance areas and around the longer-term diagonal support area.
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