Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 20, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the selling momentum has continued and price action has formed a swing lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt another swing lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7575, 0.7610, 0.7615 and 0.7645, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 0.7540.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price is still retracing the recent bullish move and has formed a bearish channel. The EURGBP is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8795, 0.8820, 0.8945 and 0.9010 and around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1400 and 1600 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD is retracing some of the recent bullish move. Price action has formed a lower swing high and a bearish channel, suggesting that price could continue to be bearish. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing bearish. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous swing low at 1.1760, around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the recent swing high at 1.1820. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1675.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1400 and 1600 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the bullish channel support area and has since been closing higher. Price has been very choppy and indecisive but recent price action has been bullish. The GBPUSD is steadily up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3175 and 1.3135. A upside move could find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.3250 and the channel resistance area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish and has moved below the recent support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.6835, around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. An attempt to swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6780 and around the channel support area.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is retracing the recent bullish move. Price action has been choppy and indecisive. Recent price action has been bullish though, signalling that the USDCAD could move to the upside and possibly start up-trending. The moving averages are slightly bullish – confirming the analysis. Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support at 1.2715. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2820.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF closed below the tight horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – the USDCHF is down-trending. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the previous swing high at 0.9945. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent low at 0.9850. Price does look a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are moving sideways.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has stalled around the bearish channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the selling momentum and the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 112.65. A move lower could stall or reverse around the channel support area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bullish and has moved above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that price may start up-trending. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening – confirming the buying momentum. Price action has formed a bullish channel. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1287.85, around the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. GOLD may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.
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