TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 17, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the selling momentum may continue. Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7575, 0.7610, 0.7615 and 0.7645, around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP has been retracing some of the recent bullish move. Price action has formed a higher swing high but price still seems a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9010, 0.8935, 0.8820, 0.8795 and 0.8735 and around the diagonal support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 0830 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and is attempting a swing higher. The EURUSD is up-trending but is also looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price may swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal support at 1.1760 and around the trend support area. The EURUSD may start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.1760-1.1850. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 0830 UTC today. A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved above the symmetrical triangle resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is now above the recent consolidation and price action has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the GBPUSD could possibly start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and are widening – confirming the upside momentum. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3220, 1.3200 and 1.3135, around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3310.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD reversed bearish around the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – but the NZDUSD is struggling to close below the horizontal support area at 0.6830-0.6835. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price may attempt to break to the downside of the support area. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.6880 and 0.6910 and around the trend resistance area. Price may find support around the horizontal support area at 0.6830-0.6835 and around the diagonal support area. If the NZDUSD moves above the trend resistance area, price could become bullish and attempt a move higher.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and be choppy. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2715 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2785. Price is also ranging between the recent lows at 1.2665 and the swing high at 1.2800. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the ranges and if the USDCAD moves out of either range (break-out trades).
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today. A Canadian CPI figure will be announced at the same time.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price has continued to retrace the recent sell-off. The USDCHF has been down-trending but still looks a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9905-0.9945. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9850 and 0.9975.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the previous horizontal support at 113.30 and the longer-term moving average and has since swung lower. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – the USDJPY is down-trending. Price has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and are steady, all signalling that the bearish momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 112.65, around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
A US building permits figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1265.30, 1271.50, 1275.90 and 1287.85.
Hits: 3