TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 16, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 16.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the trend resistance area and the shorter-term moving average. The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending but has been finding support around the 0.7575 area. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7610 and 0.7635. The AUDUSD could continue to find support at 0.7575.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 16.11.2017

Price reversed around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has also been finding support around the 0.8940 horizontal level (as also suggested). Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and are widening though and recent price action has been bullish, all signalling that the EURGBP may attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.8935. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.9010.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK Retail Sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 16.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt a move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the recent high at 1.1850.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 16.11.2017

The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Price is consolidating between the horizontal levels at 1.3070 and 1.3220 and also within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation patterns and if the GBPUSD moves out of either pattern (break-out trade).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Retail Sales figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 16.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and continues to be bearish. The NZDUSD is slowly down-trending but is struggling to close below the horizontal support at 0.6850. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the recent swing high at 0.6910. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6850 and 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 16.11.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and range between the recent swing low at 1.2665 and the recent swing high at 1.2800. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDCAD could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.2905.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 16.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the previous bearish channel support area (as resistance). Price has since moved higher though and is retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt to swing lower. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous bearish channel support area (as resistance), around the longer-term moving average, around the previous swing low at 0.9925 and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move may find support around the recent low at 0.9850.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 16.11.2017

The USDJPY is currently retracing. Price has been down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are starting to widen, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 113.30 and around the trend resistance area. A move to the downside could find support around the recent swing low at 112.65.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Unemployment Claims is at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 16.11.2017

GOLD continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1265.30, 1271.50 and 1287.85.