TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 14, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 14.11.2017

The AUDUSD has moved below the recent consolidation area. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages have become bearish and are widening, all suggesting that price may start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7635, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. A move lower may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 14.11.2017

Price continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. From a technical view, there are very few areas that may provide trading opportunities. The EURGBP may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8735, 0.8795, 0.8820, 0.8940 and 0.8970.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 14.11.2017

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive but recent price action has been bullish. Price has formed a tight bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, all suggesting that the EURUSD may move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1675, around the bullish channel support area and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. Price may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 14.11.2017

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3045, 1.3070, 1.3220 and 1.3310. If the GBPUSD moves below the horizontal support at 1.3045, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 14.11.2017

The NZDUSD has been very bearish and has moved below the recent bullish channel support area. Price has also moved below the recent consolidation area, signalling that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. The moving averages have also crossed bearish and are widening – confirming the bearish momentum. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6880 and 0.6895, around the trend resistance area and around the bearish moving averages. A swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 14.11.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent bearish channel resistance area. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting that the USDCAD may become indecisive. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 1.2665 and 1.2800 and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 14.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the previous horizontal support at 0.9975. The USDCHF is still moving within the bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the current selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.9975 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A move to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9925 and around the bearish channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 14.11.2017

The USDJPY has been bullish and has moved above the bearish channel resistance area. Price action is likely to form a higher swing high and the moving averages are tightening and may cross bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending. Long opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 113.70, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area (as support). A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent swing highs at 114.05 and 114.25.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a European Central Bank panel today at 1000 UTC. Speeches will be given from Governors, Chairs and Presidents of the central banks of the UK, US, the EU and Japan. A US PPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 14.11.2017

GOLD continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1265.30, 1274.80, 1279.00 and 1287.85.