TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 03, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 03.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the consolidation resistance area. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and consolidate between the recent lows at 0.7630 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7720. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long could exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous symmetrical triangle and the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This will be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 03.11.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above a number of key resistance levels. The moving averages have also crossed bullish and are widening, all suggesting that the EURGBP could start up-trending. If price pulls-back during today’s trading sessions, buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the horizontal levels at 0.8890, 0.8840, 0.8825 and 0.8800 and around the bullish moving averages. A move to the upside, the EURGBP may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8970 and 0.9025.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK Services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.  The USD news at 1230 UTC will likely cause some volatile on EURGBP though.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 03.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD was rejected and reversed around the horizontal channel support and resistance levels. Price also moved above the channel resistance area but continues to move sideways. The EURGBP continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1610 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1675. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the recent low at 1.1580. If price breaks to the upside, the EURUSD could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 1.1735.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This will be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 03.11.2017

The GBPUSD has been very bearish and has moved below the range support area. Price is now below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the GBPUSD could continue to be bearish. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous range support area at 1.3080 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been very positive. The Bank of England have an increased the base interest rate by 0.25% but have no plans to increase rates again in the near future. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Services PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC. This will be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 03.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish. The NZDUSD has struggled to form a strong swing to the upside and seems to be a little indecisive. The moving averages are bullish though, suggesting that price may continue to climb. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 0.6880. A swing to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6940 and 0.7000.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This will be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 03.11.2017

Price has moved below the horizontal channel support area but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bullish move may reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2910.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian Unemployment and Trade Balance figures will be released at the same time. This will all be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 03.11.2017

Just like most other USD pairs, the USDCHF is moving sideways and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9935-1.0035. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This will be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 03.11.2017

The USDJPY has been finding resistance around the consolidation resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal levels at 113.80 and 114.25 and also ranging between the horizontal levels at 112.95 and 114.25. Trading opportunities may exist around both range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of either range (break-out trades).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This will be followed by a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 03.11.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. GOLD continues to move within a horizontal channel at 1265.30-1281.40 and be indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price is also moving within a bullish channel and the moving averages are slightly bullish, signalling that GOLD could attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area.