TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 01, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and consolidate. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. The AUDUSD is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern and also consolidating between the recent low at 0.7630 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7720. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both consolidation areas and if price moves out of either consolidation (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC. An Australian Trade Balance figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and downtrend. The EURGBP is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the selling momentum could continue. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal levels at 0.8825, 0.8840 and 0.8855 and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could continue to find support around the channel support area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD has become indecisive and is moving within a tight horizontal channel at 1.1625-1.1660. The moving averages are tightening and are starting to move sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If the EURUSD breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.1735. If the EURUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.1580.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction – confirming the indecision. The GBPUSD is ranging between the recent low at 1.3080 and the recent high at 1.3320. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range support area. As also suggested, the NZDUSD closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price action is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that the NZDUSD could continue to be bullish. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 0.6880 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6940 and 0.7000.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD kept reversing around the tight horizontal channel support and resistance (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price eventually moved above the channel resistance area and has since been bullish (as also suggested). The USDCAD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tight though, suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the support and resistance areas of the previous horizontal channel – 1.2815 & 1.2850. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.2905 and if price moves below the horizontal support at 1.2815.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC. There is a Bank of Canada Speech scheduled for 2015 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bullish but is struggling to form a swing higher. Price is now moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight. Price could still swing higher and continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the trend support area. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9990 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has moved back into the recent consolidation area. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal support at 112.95 and the horizontal resistance at 114.25. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDJPY breaks to the downside, price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 112.40.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by US Manufacturing PMI at 1400 UTC, US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC and a FOMC Statement at 1800 UTC. An Australian Trade Balance figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive but price has slightly bearish and is slowly down-trending. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Shorting opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1281.60 and 1283.65. A move to the downside may find support around the recent lows at 1265.30.

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