TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 30, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and is currently retracing some of the recent bearish swing. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7720 and 0.7775. An attempt to swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7630 and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. The EURGBP has been down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8850, 0.8890 and 0.8945, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price could continue to find support around the channel support area.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has continued to be bearish and is forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening and price is below the recent consolidation area, signalling that the EURUSD may start down-trending. If price continues to pull-back, shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the bearish moving averages. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the recent low at 1.5675.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear trend direction. The GBPUSD could reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3080, 1.3275 and 1.3320.
The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has slightly retraced some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are still bearish and steady, suggesting that the NZDUSD may swing lower. Price is finding support around the recent low at 0.6830 though, signalling that the current retrace is not yet over. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6940. Shorting opportunities could also exist if price closes below the horizontal support at 0.6830.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has reversed bearish around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending and is still moving within the bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average and around the bullish channel support area. A swing higher could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.
The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has found support at the shorter-term moving average and is attempting a bullish move off that area. Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 0.9935 and around the trend support area.
The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price is steadily up-trending within a bullish channel. The USDJPY reversed around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and is now finding support around the bullish channel support area (as also suggested). The moving averages are slightly bullish, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt another bullish swing. Long opportunities could exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 113.25 and 113.15. An attempt to swing high may stall or reverse around the recent high at 114.25 and the channel resistance area.
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.
There is a Bank of Japan Rate Announcement and Press Conference during the early hours of tomorrow morning (UTC).
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD has been bearish and has recently formed another swing lower. Price is slightly bearish and down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the selling momentum may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1281.60 and 1283.65. A move to the downside may find support around the recent lows at 1265.30.
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