TriumphFX Inter-day Forex Analysis – Daily Charts – October 30, 2017

AUDUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, price has struggled to swing higher and has become bearish. As also suggested, the AUDUSD found support around the previous horizontal resistance level at 0.7745. Price action recently formed a head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that the AUDUSD could continue to move lower. Price may reverse around the identified diagonal support area though. Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal level at 0.7745, around the bearish moving averages and if the AUDUSD closes below the diagonal support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

EURUSD – Daily Chart

Price action has formed a head and shoulder pattern. The EURUSD is below the moving averages, which are tightening and becoming more bearish, suggesting that price could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support and neckline of the head and shoulder pattern at 1.1705, around the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A move to the downside could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1285 and 1.0865.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

GBPUSD – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, the GBPUSD has found support around the previous swing high at 1.3030 but price is struggling to swing higher. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, signalling that the GBPUSD may continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent high at 1.3585. If the GBPUSD becomes bearish, price could find support around the horizontal level at 1.2630.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

NZDUSD – Daily Chart

The NZDUSD found support around the horizontal level at 0.7050 and is now finding support around the recent lows at 0.6825 (as suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis). Price continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6825, 0.7050, 0.7335 and 0.7525. If the NZDUSD closes below the lows at 0.6825, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

USDCHF – Daily Chart

As suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis, price broke above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. If the USDCHF does continue to be bullish, price could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.0095, 1.0145 and 1.0300. The USDCHF may find support around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous channel resistance at 0.9760.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

USDJPY – Daily Chart

Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 107.80 and the horizontal resistance at 114.40. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the USDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 118.25.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

XAUUSD – Daily Chart

GOLD did find support around the 61.8% Fib level (as suggested in our last inter-day chart analysis) but price has failed to swing higher. GOLD is moving within a bullish channel but the moving averages are signalling market indecision – they are moving sideways and are tightening. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1211.70 and 1349.25.

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