TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 20, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 20.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the consolidation support area again. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and consolidate between the diagonal support area and the recent highs at 0.7890 (ascending triangle pattern). Price has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are now moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation patterns and if the AUDUSD moves out of the consolidation patterns (break-out trades).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 20.10.2017

Price is finding resistance at the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8855 and the recent highs at 0.9025. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 20.10.2017

The EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction. From a technical analysis perspective, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. Price may reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1685, 1.1740, 1.1850 and 1.1880.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 20.10.2017

Price continues to look a little indecisive but price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the GBPUSD may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3135 and 1.3150, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A move to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the recent swing low at 1.3030.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 20.10.2017

The NZDUSD has been very bearish and is forming a clear swing lower. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.7055 and 0.7120 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 20.10.2017

Just like most USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2435-1.2590 and a symmetrical triangle pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and symmetrical triangle pattern and if price moves out of either consolidation areas (break-out trades). The moving averages are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the current indecision.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

Canadian CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 20.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been rejected at the horizontal resistance at 0.9830. Price continues to be indecisive and look choppy (just like most USD pairs). The moving averages confirm this – they are providing no clear trend direction and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified support and resistance areas at 0.9710, 0.9735 and 0.9830.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 20.10.2017

Price is being rejected at the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is ranging between the recent lows at 111.70 and the recent highs at 113.40. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt a break to the upside.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is a Fed Chair Speech scheduled for 2330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 20.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 1291.00. GOLD continues to be indecisive. Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel at 1277.50-1291.00. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If GOLD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the recent high at 1305.95. If GOLD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the recent low at 1260.90.