TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 19, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 19.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found support around the consolidation support area. Price continues to be indecisive and move between the trend support area and the recent highs at 0.7890 (ascending triangle consolidation pattern). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation pattern and if the AUDUSD moves out of the pattern (break-out trade).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 19.10.2017

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 0.8855 and the recent highs at 0.9020. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

UK Retail Sales will be announced at 0830 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 19.10.2017

Price continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear market direction. From a technical analysis perspective, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. Price may reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1685, 1.1740 and 1.1880.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 19.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal support area at 1.3130. The GBPUSD continues to be indecisive though. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are currently moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3030, 1.3130, 1.3140 and 1.3320.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

UK Retail Sales will be announced at 0830 UTC today. A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 19.10.2017

The NZDUSD found support around the 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but then reversed bearish around the moving averages and the diagonal resistance area (as also suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.7055 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 19.10.2017

Just like most USD pairs, the USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2435-1.2590. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the current indecision.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 19.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.9830. The USDCHF continues to move sideways and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear market direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9675, 0.9715, 0.9770 and 0.9830.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 19.10.2017

Price moved above the horizontal channel resistance area and was very bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the USDJPY continues to look indecisive and lack trend direction. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. Price may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 111.70, 112.55 and 113.40.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Unemployment Claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 19.10.2017

GOLD is another USD pair that continues to be indecisive and choppy. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels and around the bearish moving averages.