TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 18, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 18.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the trend support area. The AUDUSD looks like it is consolidating between the trend support area and the recent swing high at 0.7890 (ascending triangle pattern). The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation pattern and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). If the AUDUSD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7770, 0.7750 and 0.7735.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC. Australian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 18.10.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and look like they may cross again – confirming the current indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8855-0.8930. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the EURGBP could be rejected or reverse around the recent high at 0.9020.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 0810 UTC today. A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 18.10.2017

The EURUSD is looking very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. From a technical analysis perspective, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. Price may reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.1685 and 1.1880.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 0810 UTC today. A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 18.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has become indecisive. Price has moved out of the recent bullish channel. The GBPUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3130 and the recent swing high at 1.3320. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that price may become bearish. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous channel support area (as resistance).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK Average Earnings Index figure will be announced at 0830 UTC. A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 18.10.2017

Price has continued to be bearish and retrace. The NZDUSD has moved below some of the key Fib levels and below both moving averages, suggesting that the selling momentum is strong. The moving averages are still bullish though, signalling that price could still attempt a bullish move. Buying opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance and around the horizontal resistance at 0.7195.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 18.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected and has reversed around the recent highs at 1.2595. The USDCAD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2435 and the recent highs at 1.2595. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 18.10.2017

Just like most USD pairs, the USDCHF is looking indecisive and choppy. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9675, 0.9715, 0.9770 and 0.9830. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 18.10.2017

The USDJPY continues to move within a horizontal channel at 111.70-112.60 and be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent high at 113.40.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A US Building Permits figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1430 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 18.10.2017

GOLD is looking indecisive. Price has closed below the horizontal support at 1284.30 and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all suggesting that GOLD could become bearish and move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1284.30 and 1291.00 and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.