Daily Technical Forex Forecast 18.10.2017

EUR/USD

The euro continued falling and the price is locked between two strong volume levels now: the resistance 1.1870 and the support 1.1680 – 1.1699. Also we need to note that the fall of the price was and is on small volume, so that we can’t point out any fresh levels. That’s why we should wait for the price to come out from the range and only after that we can consider opening new deals.

GBP/USD

The pair fell down sharply yesterday and broke down the previous level of support. But then the move was stopped by the new volume level 1.3163 and the price started trading a little bit above this level.

Given the abrupt fall and the absence of the significant reaction of the price to the support, we should consider the scenario of its breakdown and opening short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown bar. A potential of the deal is around 130 pips.

USD/JPY

The Yen is still trading in the consolidation, but near its lower boundary. The price moved on small volume yesterday, so we can’t point out any new level and our previous scenario remains the same: short positions after a strong and confident breakdown of the support 111.73 – 111.86.

As for long positions, we can consider them only after the breakout of the resistance 113.20 – 113.42.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD had tested the upper limit of the consolidation, but failed to break it out and rebounded down strongly. So now the pair is trading inside the range once again and it means that our scenario remains actual: we need to wait for the sure breakout of the one of the boundaries of the consolidation. While the pair is trading in it, we should stay out of the market.

AUD/USD

Everything remains the same for the Australian dollar as well. The price is trading a little it below the resistance level 0.7893, so we should open long positions only after its confident and sharp breakout. The move should be supported by large volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is 70 pips.

As for short positions, we can consider them only after the breakdown of the support 0.7744.

XAU/USD

The price of gold continued falling on Tuesday, and the move was fairly certain. Nevertheless, the fall of the price was stopped by large volume, after which a new volume level of 1283.70 – 1286.30 was formed. This level is the cornerstone of the gold trading, so it is worth waiting for a strong reaction of the price to it, after which it will be possible to open new deals.

Thus it is worth highlighting 2 trading scenarios:
1. Test of this level and a sharp rebound of the price up on increased volume. In this case, it is necessary to consider the option of opening long positions. A stop loss should be placed below yesterday’s minimum. The target is the local maximum.
2. Breakdown of a fresh volume level on increased volume and the continuation of a price fall, which will be an excellent signal for sales. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The potential of the deal is 200 points.

The sentiment: given that almost all currency pairs are in ranges, this indicator is a bit useless right now. Anyway, after exits of pairs from consolidations, we should watch for changes of it.

The bottom line: pretty tough situation for trading on the market as many instruments are in ranges. That’s why it is necessary to get a strong confirming signals before entering the market.

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