TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 17, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 17.10.2017

The AUDUSD has been bearish and is currently retracing from the recent swing high. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the identified diagonal support area. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.7890.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news event today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 17.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has been bearish and has moved lower. Price is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8855 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8915. Trading opportunities could exist around the the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price may break to the downside. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1015 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 17.10.2017

Price has continued to be bearish and retrace the recent bullish swing. The EURUSD is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are providing no clear trend direction. Price may be rejected or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1685, 1.1830 and 1.1880.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 17.10.2017

The GBPUSD continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. Price action has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the GBPUSD could attempt a move higher.  The moving averages confirm the current indecision though – they are moving sideways and are starting to tighten. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 1.3130. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3320 and the bullish channel resistance area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A UK CPI figure will be released at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of England Speech at 1015 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 17.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found support around the shorter-term moving average and the 23.6% Fib level but price has been struggling to form a swing higher. The NZDUSD is now retracing. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that price may attempt a bullish move. Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7095. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent high at 0.7195 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 17.10.2017

Price continues to look indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. From a technical analysis perspective, there are very few areas that may provide price reversal. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2435, 1.2455 and 1.2595.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 17.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the range resistance area. The USDCHF continues to be indecisive and look choppy. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is moving above the recent range resistance area at 0.9770, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt a bullish move. Price could be rejected or reverse around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9675, 0.9715, 0.9770 and 0.9830.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 17.10.2017

Just like most other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and is lacking clear trend direction. The moving averages were bearish but are now moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 111.70 and 112.60 and around the previous trend resistance area (as support).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 17.07.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around the bullish channel resistance area. Price has since been very bearish and has moved below the bullish channel support area. GOLD is now looking indecisive (like most USD pairs). The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1284.85, 1291.00 and 1305.95. If GOLD moves below the horizontal support at 1284.85, price may attempt a bearish move lower.