TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 16, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 16.10.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7870, around the trend support areas and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7890.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

Australian Monetary Policy Minutes will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 16.10.2017

The EURGBP has moved below the recent range support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish are widening, all signalling that price could move lower. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous range support areas at 0.8910 and 0.8915 and around the bearish moving averages. The EURGBP has been finding support around 0.8875. Price could start ranging between this level and the previous range support areas.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 16.10.2017

Price is retracing some of the recent bullish swing. The EURUSD is looking a little choppy and indecisive, suggesting that price may move sideways rather than swing higher. The moving averages confirm this  – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The current bearish move could find support around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1780. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.1880.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 16.10.2017

The GBPUSD continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. Price action has formed a bullish channel though and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, all signalling that the GBPUSD may move higher and possibly uptrend. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 1.3130. A move to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3320 and the bullish channel resistance area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 16.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has moved higher and is starting to show signs of a possible uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that upside momentum is strong. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal channel resistance area at 0.7095. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7195 and 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

A New Zealand CPI figure will be announced at 2145 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 16.10.2017

Price has moved above the recent trend resistance area and is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2435, 1.2450, 1.2530 and 1.2595 and around the previous trend resistance area (as support). If the USDCAD closes below the horizontal support at 1.2435, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 16.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price was rejected and has reversed around the range support area and the previous diagonal resistance area (as support). The USDCHF continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9715 and the recent highs at 0.9830. Price is also ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9715 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9770. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the downside, price could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9675 and 0.9655.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 16.10.2017

The USDJPY continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price is steadily bearish though and has been forming lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the USDJPY could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous swing low at 112.00, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 111.50.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 16.10.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and continues to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and are steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that GOLD may move higher. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1296.85, 1291.00 and 1284.85. Price may reverse around the channel resistance area.