Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 16-20.10.2017

EUR/USD

After the release of the fundamental news on Friday, EUR/USD showed a rapid growth on very large volume. It is worth noting that despite such a sharp upward movement, volume was concentrated at the top, after which the price began correcting downward. It is necessary to allocate a new level of resistance 1.1870, in which rather significant volume is concentrated.

Nevertheless, given that the price corrected on small volume, as well as the price came out of the consolidation earlier last week, it is worth considering the scenario of opening long positions after the breakdown of the resistance level. The breakout movement must be sharp and on large volume to avoid false signals. A stop loss should be placed under the volume breakout bar. The potential of the deal is 110-120 points.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD did not show a significant reaction to the news on Friday and remained trading just above the support level of 1.3225 – 1.3254, which is quite a large volume.

Thus, it is worth noting that our previous scenario of opening long positions for this currency pair remains relevant. Purchases can be opened after the price starts growing from the support level. A stop loss should be placed under the support level. The target is 1.3425.

USD/JPY

The Yen finally broke through the lower border of the consolidation, after which a new level of support was formed, which stopped the price fall. This is the level of 111.73 – 111.86. In this range, a large volume is concentrated, which makes it the cornerstone of the trading of this currency pair.

Given the strong bearish momentum and the price out of the consolidation, it is worth giving preference to short positions for USD/JPY. Sales can be opened after a sure breakdown of the support level on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volume bar. The fall potential is more than 100 points.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is still trading in the consolidation between two strong volume levels: support 1.2404 – 1.2428 and resistance 1.2566 – 1.2580. Thus, the only possible option for trading this currency pair is to exit of the price out of the consolidation. The breakdown movement must be sharp and on increased/large volume.
If the pair continues trading in the consolidation, it is better to be out of the market.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar broke through the previous resistance level, which is an excellent bullish signal. The breakdown movement was sharp and on large volume. Nevertheless, a new resistance level 0.7893 was formed, in which large volume is concentrated.

Thus, we can open purchases only after a confident and sharp breakdown of this level. The move should be on large volume, which will be a more accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below a volume breakout bar. The potential of the deal is 60-70 points.

XAU/USD

The price of gold showed rapid growth on Friday. The upward movement was on large volume, and a new volume level of 1298.90 – 1302.10 was formed, in which significant volume is concentrated.

Thus, it is worth giving preference to long positions. Purchases should be opened after the price growth resumes from the new volume level. A stop loss should be placed a little below the level of 1298.90. The growth potential is more than 100 points.

The sentiment: all our scenarios (except the yen) are confirmed by the mood of the market, which is a good additional signal.

The bottom line: after the release of important macroeconomic data on Friday, the market showed a significant moves which give us a plenty of interesting scenarios at the moment. GBP/USD and gold are in priority.

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