TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 13, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 13.10.2017

The AUDUSD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 0.7735-0.7870. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could move to the channel resistance area. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous trend resistance area (as support).

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 13.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP closed above the range resistance area and then formed a bullish move higher. Price quickly reversed though and has been very bearish. The EURGBP is now ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8910 and the recent high 0.9025. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The EURGBP could stall or reverse around the previous trend support area.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 13.10.2017

Price has been retracing some of the recent bullish swing. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1825-1.1880. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways – confirming the indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the EURUSD may be rejected or reverse around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1780.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 13.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected and is finding resistance around the horizontal resistance level at 1.3285. The GBPUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive. From a price action perspective, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities and signals that suggest where future price may be. The GBPUSD could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3285 and 1.3030 and around the moving averages. If price moves above the horizontal resistance level, the GBPUSD may attempt a bullish move higher.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 13.10.2017

The NZDUSD has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could move higher and start up-trending. If the NZDUSD pulls-back, opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7095. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 13.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has found resistance around the shorter-term moving average and the previous swing low. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – the USDCAD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.2485. A move to the downside could stall or reverse around the most recent swing low at 1.2435.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 13.10.2017

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The USDCHF is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9710 and the most recent swing high at 0.9830. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 13.10

Just like the USDCHF, the USDJPY is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price may become bearish break to the downside of the consolidation area. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 111.50, 112.00, 112.60 and 113.35. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US CPI and Retail Sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 13.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the shorter-term moving average and the bullish channel support area. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and a bullish channel, all suggesting that GOLD could move higher. Long opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1296.85, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal support at 1284.85. A move to the upside could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.