TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 12, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 12.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has moved above the channel resistance area and has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish but are moving sideways, signalling that the AUDUSD may become indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7735-0.7870. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 12.10.2017

Price has struggled to form a swing higher and has reversed bearish around the recent highs (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8910 and the highs at 0.8990. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The EURGBP could stall or reverse around the previous trend support area (as resistance).

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is an European Central Bank (ECB) Speech at 1430 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 12.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, all signalling that the EURUSD may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified trend support area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will speak at 1430 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 12.10.2017

The GBPUSD has continued to be bullish. From a price action perspective, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities and signals that suggest where future price may be. The GBPUSD could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3285 and 1.3030 and around the moving averages.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 12.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the tight range resistance area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are about to cross bullish, suggesting that the NZDUSD may attempt a bullish move. Long opportunities could exist around the previous range resistance area at 0.7095, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous trend resistance area. A move to the upside may stall or reverse around the previous horizontal support at 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 12.10.2017

Price is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDCAD may continue to downtrend. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2450 and 1.2485, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 12.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF was rejected and reversed around the diagonal resistance area. Price continues to look indecisive and choppy. The USDCHF is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9710 and the most recent swing high at 0.9830. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the USDCHF could break to the downside. Shorting opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the bearish moving averages.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 12.10.2017

Even though the USDJPY is below the recent consolidation area, price continues to look very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 112.75. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 112.00 and 111.50.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

US PPI and Unemployment Claims figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1500 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 12.10.2017

GOLD has formed a swing high and swing low and is now trending higher. The moving averages are bullish and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that GOLD could continue to uptrend. Opportunities to go long may exist around the recent swing high at 1293.80, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. A move to the upside could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.