TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 11, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 11.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has found resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The AUDUSD recent struggled to reach the channel support area and the moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, all suggesting that price may move above the channel resistance area. Buying opportunities could exist around the horizontal support at 0.7775, around the recent lows at 0.7735, around the moving averages and if the AUDUSD closes above the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. Recent Monetary Policy Minutes have detailed that the Australian economy is improving. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 11.10.2017

The EURGBP has continued to find support around the trend support area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that upside momentum is weakening and that price could struggle to swing higher. Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8950. The EURGBP could reverse bearish around the recent highs at 0.8985. If price closes below the trend support area, the EURGBP may attempt a bearish move lower.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 11.10.2017

Price is moving within a large horizontal channel and has been finding resistance around the channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1685-1.1830. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk. This has caused added strength for the Euro. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 11.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around the identified horizontal level at 1.3230. The GBPUSD is currently retracing a recent bearish swing. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways, suggesting that price could become indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.3030, 1.3230 and 1.3285.

The UK has started negotiations for leaving the European Union. Brexit and political uncertain in the UK are causing weakness in sterling. Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive. The Bank of England have an increased favour for increasing interest rates – creating more optimism and strength for the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 11.10.2017

The NZDUSD has been moving off the tight horizontal channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is moving sideways within the horizontal channel at 0.7055-0.7095. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price may move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.7150.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 11.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has become indecisive and has moved out of the recent bullish channel. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2450 and the recent high at 1.2590. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Canada have unexpectedly raised rates to 1.00%. This has caused the Canadian Dollar to strengthen. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 11.10.2017

Just like the USDCAD, the USDCHF has failed to swing higher and has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are providing no clear trend direction – confirming the current indecision. Price is ranging between the swing low at 0.9715 and the recent highs at 0.9830. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the previous trend support area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 11.10.2017

Price has moved below the consolidation support area and the moving averages have become bearish, suggesting that the USDJPY could start down-trending. Selling opportunities may exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the recent swing high at 112.75. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 112.00 and 111.50.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen is a safe-haven currency, which means it could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe intensify or if the possibility of war between the US and North Korea starts to solidify, though war between these 2 countries may have a negative impact on the JPY due to Japan’s geographical location and history with North Korea. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.25% but expect to hike rates by the end of the calendar year. This is giving strength to the US Dollar. If political uncertainties intensify in the US or if tensions between the US and North Korea escalate, the US Dollar could weaken.

FOMC Meeting Minutes will be announced at 1800 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 11.10.2017

GOLD continues to look a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1293.80, 1280.90 and 1261.00. If GOLD closes above the horizontal level at 1293.80, price may start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages.

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